The Bubble

Over at his Ænimic Digest blog the mysterious author Mozeley recently spoke at length about what he sees as a possible 'turning of the tide' as the balance of strength - on and off the pitch - switches from the English to the Spanish league.

As we know only too well, Real Madrid have made a number of high profile, and expensive, signings this summer, whilst Barcelona beat Manchester in the European Champions League Final at the end of May and throughout the season played a style of football that was universally accepted as the finest in Europe.

Whilst I think performance on the field is a cyclical thing - it was just 4 years ago I believe that we had an all-Italian Champions League final - I do think we are seeing a shift in the financial strength of the top two leagues in the world: Spain and England.

Years ago I worked with a chap who's stock phrase when talking about the English Premier League was 'the bubble is going to burst'. Fifteen years later the bubble hasn't burst but I am starting to see some strain.

Only last week Jermain Pennant - an at best average Premier League player in my opinion - signed a 3 year deal with Spanish side Real Zaragoza which is reportedly worth the equivalent of £80,000 a week.

The deal was made possible thanks to Spanish tax laws that mean that the top bracket of tax in that country is a 'mere' 23% - comparing very favourably to the 50% rate in England.

The Spanish have been helped to reduce this upper tax bracket by what has informally become known as the "Beckham law". In an attempt to encourage overseas businesses to place their leading executives in Spain, the government introduced legislation to cut taxes in the top bracket for the first five years.

So, with 'average' English players able to command such high wages can we expect to see more English players moving to Spain? Yes and no is my prediction!

English players - as do English people in general - have traditionally been reluctant to work abroad. Even before the days of huge wages in English football it was always easier, safer, to settle for a lower wage than move to a foreign country, learn a new language (heaven forbid everyone in the host country doesn't speak English!) and a new lifestyle and culture. Bottom line: we English like our comfort zone and that zone doesn't include a foreign language, foreign food or, for that matter, foreign people.

So, the top, top players - the Steven Gerrards, 'Mr Chelsea', Rooney - will take what they've got, bank their high wages and fees for endorsements etc, live like royalty and still get to watch The X-Factor on a Saturday night.

It'll be the next tier of English professional footballer - the Pennants - that will be most likely to be attracted by a move to the lower and mid-ranking Spanish teams. They won't go alone - I suspect we'll see Zaragoza pick up another English player to keep Pennant company - and I don't think they'll stay long - I predict Pennant will have left Spain in a year, having not learnt the language, not done terribly well on the field and claiming that he 'didn't settle'.

The best foreign players will, of course, head for Spain rather than England. For less - even the same - take-home pay why would you choose Aston Villa over Deportivo?

Is the [financial] tide turning? Will the bubble burst? I hope so.

English football needs a period of humility.